Companero

With regard to the available options:

1. My preference in this situation.

2. What will happen in this situation if it doesn't end after a year, altough Hungary and maybe Slovakia might suvive moderatley intact.

3. 9 Reasons why an occupation like this is unlikely, even if you except the idea of the NearWar ever occuring:

1. general pacifist nature of the German public and political system preventing them from starting the war (not to mention that Berlin would be in range of 2020 era conventional artillery during the opening days of the war... )

2. The threat of the German strategic arsenal preventing the Poles from starting the war.

3. The rest of the world screaming Nazi Revival at Germany in the event of a clash - hell, that happens whenever German troops are deployed anywhere for whatever reason...

4. The threat of starting a full scale shooting war with the United States (its as good a reason as the paranoid Kress administatration would ever get, not to mention the power of the Polish lobby in the US. Also a good oppurtunity for states in places like the PacRim to legally embargo EU products.

5. The democracy/casualties factor - the Bundeswehr couldn't maintain many casualties in the face of the war, and even if it supplemented its forces with BCF/French army mercs it still couldn't afford many casualties (this would be the biggest clash/first truly major nation vs nation war since the Korean Unification clash), plus using the mercs would lead to more anti EU stigma.

6. Peace Demonstatrations, both in Germany and rest of Europe, plus the risk of EU nations withdrawring in protest.

7. Newsfilm of burning first world cities, shopping malls, churches, teenagers driving suicide bombs into the side of Leopard 4 tanks...you think that the effects of the media caused by Iraq are bad, bear in mind that right now its mostly liberals protesting - as soon as your average first world conservative realises that the suicide bomber hitting that Leopard wasn't (to be very blunt about this) some dark skinned muslim but rather a white skinned christian teenager they will be marching in their millions as well (I should really learn to be less cynical about the mindset of the average westerner ). Governments like the US would even encourage it as anti EU propaganda - wait till Radio Free Europe reactivates...

8. Why occupy the country and risk such a major clash when you can just drop a rock on an airbase or two, put a few ortillery satelittes in geosynce orbit or Warsaw and the presidents mansion/ his daughter's school and simply force the Poles to back down? We are talking about the nation with the most strategic firepower in the cp2020 world...

9. No real reason for German forces to attack in the first place - they are already tied up in the Czech Republic, they probably have more to gain by either staying where they are or backing down than crossing the Oder... This clash is basically a paranoid standoff, and neither side actually has anything to gain via such a war.

The other chromer is demonstrably dead...Almost.

The bit that isn't dead is a small radio mike, with someone screaming gutteral curses down it, broken up by static. The AK has dropped to the floor, empty. He looks as if he was about to reload, there is a full mag dropped next to him.

In this room is the door leading to Aubrey's location (who BTW might not know you are in there...) and another door leading sideways into the garage. Inside are two vehicles, a black ToyoChev sedan and what looks like a New American Motors Minivan. The garage can be activated by a switch next to the door.

You've got alot of starting material to work with, which should be a help...

Apologies for yesterday, the problem seems to have sorted itself out now...(I couldn't even get into my emails before )

Anyway, seeing as I ought to make an effort to keep Poland2020 interest running while you are busy...

I've realised that the Media idea needs me to have a passing knowledge of Politics - also I was thinking of doing some grunt work with regards to the basic demographics of the country, so this is becoming more important...so doing a little research, brainstorming...

From my very quick scan over the stuff i've got in front of me, i've been trying to work up some ideas for the political situation...

BASIC SYNOPSIS IDEA

I would say you would need a government with fairly old-right wing tendancies to be carrying on the NearWar, especially as it doesn't seem to have any conceivable benefit for anyone involved

So i'm thinking maybe the Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc in power having come in thru a coalition with the more moderate, pro business Platforma Obywatelska but now in trouble - maybe corruption, maybe just the fact that virtually every business in Poland will be screaming at them for a reopening of the border...The PO are beginning to wish they weren't part of the coalition, and the alliance is beginning to fall apart, with some high level resignations. In addition, the PO, while appearing to have more support than the PiS right now according to the opinion polls, are failing to push thru their ideas, and this is another reason why the coalition will fail past the next election leading to a situation where the PiS may not even reach the 5 percent threshhold to get someone into the lower house next election...

According to this general idea, the PO is making a massive pre election propaganda drive, backed by corporate funding and one of the major TV stations. It is still campaigning on the Flat Tax Rate, removing parliamentary immunity for MPs, private health care etc but, along with all the other parties is promising a quick resolution to the crisis TO A POLISH ADVANTAGE, i.e guarentees from the German government, maybe some kind of demilitaries zone in German Pomerania etc. With some major outside media backing, it is gaining a large (by proportional representation standards) backing on the streets (maybe 30-40 percent), being popular with the middle classes for its business friendly policies, without doing anything that really angers the other side (i.e keeping out of morality issues - not they will probably important in 2020).

It is being opposed by a centre left potential coalition headed up by the... This is where i'm not so such. My first instinct is the SLD, but they seem to be about to drop out of the system come the next election...

So i'm thinking the Unia Pracy as the centre of this coalition. They are also promising a quick resolution to the crisis, but with less emphasis on a result favourable to Polands foreign policy interests (the way they see and say it is that when the troops pull out and the cargo trucks start flowing again, the country will see an economic recovery whatever happens, without making massive demands on what is effectivly the most powerful nation economically and diplomatically in the world, CP terms...)

Obviously Europe will watch the next election with great interest. The wide view (propagated by EuroMedia sources), is that the Left/Centre coalition would be able to bring about a quick resolution, while a PO victory might cause an escalation - in fact this is one of the main arguments that the left/centre is using, something which is polarising some voters, depending on their attitudes towards the clash...

It is however less simple than that. The PO is backed by one of the main native media corps, who in turn are owned by a major European corp (maybe WNS)... In addition, IEC is backing the PO covertly with alot of funding... the payoff is that if they win, IEC may well force the PO to give ground on the situation. Of course, IEC's funding is routed thru dummy corporations etc, and while they aren't technically doing anything illegal, if some media was to discover that the party promising to stand up to Germany is taking money from the ultimate Eurocorp...

IEC, for their part, aren't interested in foreign policy, or the interests of Germany. Their main motive is opening the border and saving their interests in the country. Something which has been tacitly noted by all Polish politicians is that IEC (as well as EBM and several others) could simply pull out their interests in this country, including wrecking the native corps owned from the outside, because they are no longer able to turn a profit or indeed operate properly in the way they want. This isn't anything anti Polish or pro German, it is just literally business sense - don't locate your factories where no one can get to it...This threat has been m,ade subtley by articles in the Economist etc. Of course, some members of the far left/right would welcome a corporate pull out and damn the consequences...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Poland

Anyway, that was the rough brainstorm/synopsis idea i've been playing with, if it disagrees with your ideas then I will change it, no problem... Need someone to play DevAd on it, hence the reason i've posted the brainstorm and not anything remotely finished...

Completely off topic, but this seemed the best place to put it...

The dangers of predicting the future...

In 1933, R D Blumenfeld, editor of the Daily Express predicted that the press of 50 years time would be less salacious, less biased, and that they would have solved the rapid distribution problem, because 'every newspaper will have its own aerodrome'.

Wrong on all 3 counts mate

Talking of which, I think i'll have ago at the P2020 press situation, assuming it hasn't been done already ( I had a look, I don't think I missed it...if I did it will be an expansion lol). That will require a fair bit of research though and along with irritating non related educational requirements means it might well take a while.

Ahh well.

Les's bullets punch through the side of the doorway, and you here a series of ugly thunks as it hits something beyond.

The firing from the doorway stops. You here the chromer say 'holy f**k' under his breath in a rather bemused way, and then the sound of a man collapsing.

From inside the doorway you can hear comm static.

The Chinese have a new 'pebble bed reactor' that is apparently meltdown proof.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor

(I haven't read that article through yet, I just remember it from the newsfeed)

Where it goes is an interesting question, and depends on the funding. The growth of Sczcezin Port might lead to one being placed in Pomerania, which in turn could put it under serious threat of sabotage - but then, sabotaging a nukereactor so close to the border isn't something that would be something the German commanders would be willing to do.

BTW, Eurosource Plus doesn't have the stupid 'German Free Fire Zone' in Northern Poland like the first one does, that really is a dumb idea .

Thankyouthankyouthankyouthankyouthankyou...

"Okay. Given the direction we are coming in from, you are probably right.

One last thing - what do we do about the - ahem - clients if we find them?"

FRANKFURTER ZEITUNG SPECIAL REPORT

SOVIET ASYLUM SEEKERS AND ECONOMIC MIGRANTS, AND THE POLISH/SLOVAKIAN PEOPLE SMUGGLING RINGS WHO TRANSPORT THEM THROUGH THE CHINKS IN FORTRESS EUROPE

As the New Soviet Union continues feel the effects of civil disturbance and oppression, a large number of people are attempting to leave for what they believe to be a better future within Fortress Europe, while others claim to be fleeing political persecution. In the past the main vector for this steady flow had been through the Ukraine into Hungary*, and then beyond into Austria, but the collapse in relations between the SSR and the current military regime in Budapest has made this a more difficult route to follow. Similarly the civil war in the Czech Republic has made that route more hazardous. This leaves two routes into Europe, either via the Yakuza** in Slovakia, or through Poland, specifically through the lawless Varmian-Mazurian Voivodship.

The Slovakian route traditionally involved crossing the Ukraine and then crossing the border with aid from the Organiskaya operation. The Yakuza, through a web of local contacts, organise the Austrian border crossing. In the past it was simpler for refugees to pass through Hungary, but the military junta in that nation has taken steps to close the Ukrainian border (while the government is hostile to Kiev and Moscow, it also wishes to avoid incidents). This route is very expensive indeed, and also involves crossing the Ukrainian border - while not strictly illegal or even controlled in the new federation, it does give an opportunity for police to ask questions.

In addition the Ukrainian Government has taken unprecedented steps to fight the Mafiya influence. Sergei Ivanov, police commissioner in L'viv, recently took unprecedented steps to crack down on the operations of the Organiskaya, resulting in the number of significant arrests. They discovered links with prostitution rings in Bratislava and Prague, as well as a massive established local smuggling network, specialising in both people and other illicit goods, going in both directions. In addition they discovered evidence of links with groups in France and Italy that would arrange false marriages in those countries as a way of getting legal migration permits. [see related news (click here) =>]

[Related news - Brutal assassination of Ukrainian police commissioner (click here)=>]

More serious from the point of view of both the SSR and the EU is the Polish route. Refugees travel to Kaliningrad with the hope of crossing the border. According to local Border Police commander Pietr Soliony, the asylum seekers are transported across the border in a number of ways. "These criminals, in their attempt to escape justice, cross the line in a variety of ways. Some make individual, unaided attempts, and are discovered by the network of sensors scattered along the border, at which point they can be apprehended efficiently. Others make use of boats or homemade diving equipment***, or are transported across hidden in vehicles. Many of these people are criminals fleeing from their crimes, and it is reprehensible that the Polish government allows so many to disappear into their otherwise fine nation".

The Polish government, however, is furious at these accusations. "We cannot be responsible for clearing up the problems of the Soviet Union. In response to their demands we have increased our border guards, at significant costs to ourselves, but it is impossible for us to stem this tide, especially given the collusion of certain members of the Kalinningrad civil administration with the smugglers!" says foreign minister Janusz Cimoszewicz. "Certain officials, including members of the Red Army, are supporting the actions of these smugglers. In truth, many of these so called criminals are able to slip even our nets, and we have to believe that the Soviet border guard play a hand in this". The Soviet response is typically brusque, accusing what they call 'isolated factions' of the Polish government of exactly the same misdemeanours. The SSR government has been continually accused of talking down to former Warsaw Pact members, and this has been a continual strain on their relationships with NCE states.

While Kaliningrad has a reputation for lawlessness and vice, the Varmian-Mazurian Voivodship on the other side of the border has its own problems. The central administration has been unable to deal with a growing tide of smuggling and banditry in a landscape perfectly suited to such activities. With the Polish military committed to the Pomeranian standoff, they have been unable to devote much more that a single TD (local equivalent of the Landwehr) brigade to the region. Before the Pomeranian standoff began, the local economy was bolstered by tourism, but this has dried up, contributing to the rise in crime as prosperity levels fall. The police are facing an uphill battle against a wave of smuggling, taking in drugs (Kal. is the synthetic drug capital of North Eastern Europe, and many of the chemical cocktails brewed there are regarded as serious health hazards by the EU council), illicit weaponry (Several Baltic states as well as the MLA have accused the Polish government of providing a vector for the weaponry reaching pirates in the Eastern Baltic and north sea) and cyberware. Accusations that the border guard are at least party to this situation have led to serious investigations, but they have turned up little evidence.

However, the current military situation in the Pomeranian region has helped to stem the tide, forcing migrants to head for the Czech Republic or Slovakia instead of straight for Germany. This situation may change soon however, according to foreign Policy analyst, prof. Alain Duchamp of the Sorbonne, who has commented on the situation. "The current German/Polish hostilities are counter-productive to development in the region, and both sides know it. Eventually either Warsaw or Berlin will back down, either due to pressure from Brussels, or the economic damage caused to both sides, but especially Poland. When that happens the political, economic, and diplomatic situation in the entire region will improve, but we will have to face up to the problem of Soviet Asylum seekers again."

[see related news stories: Pomeranian Stand-Off, deteriorating political situation along Oder river (click here) =>]

This situation presents a problem for the EU, who remain keen to hold onto their alliance with the SSR as part of a Eurasian axis against the United States. However, they cannot, by their own human rights laws, simply deport asylum seekers without investigating their situation first. Each case potentially represents media coverage of what these asylum seekers claim is serious repression within the SSR, while each case the EU accepts causes friction with the SSR government. The EU would prefer to halt these people on the Polish and Slovakian borders. According to Irish MEP Gerry Machannon, the situation represents a serious security threat, not just regarding asylum seekers but also smuggling in general.

"New Central Europe must not be the chink in the armour of Fortress Europe. It is imperative that the unfortunate diplomatic situations are resolved and aid is provided to bring these states firmly with the community". Continuing, Machannon states "Slovakia represents a particular problem for us, as it has become a vector for hostile Asian corporations and criminal groups into Europe. They seem to be willing to engage in any activity, however foul, in order to destabilise the EU".

The main entry point into the core EU for those passing through Slovakia, the Czech Republic and now Poland is Austria. Migrants pass through some very tight security using increasingly effective equipment such as thermoptic sheeting. "We have difficulty catching these people, and without physically unloading every truck and opening every container that passes through, it is an impossible task to catch everything illegal that comes through here" says Günter Richthoffen of the Wiener Neustadt police department. He, among other things, is in charge of maintaining a large detention centre just outside the town. "Occasionally things get out of hand in there, and the local population are scared. The local towns are prosperous and safe. The residents would rather the centre was elsewhere, for the continuing safety of their homes and businesses against what they see as a potential source of crime and drain on local resources."

As for the Asylum seekers and illegal immigrants themselves, many relate stories of horror, not just before they left, but also en route. A survivor who does not wished to be named claims that she "was bundled into a metal box on the back of a truck in Kaliningrad, covered in thermoptic sheeting which also covered the air holes, along with 4 other people". In addition, the promises of a better life often come unfulfilled, as the rings exploit the migrants, forcing them into prostitution and crime on arrival. With the Pomeranian Stand-Off blocking the border, many do not get beyond Poland. According to a member of the Elblag Police who wishes to remain anonymous tells us of the situation that this has caused: "The organiskaya have a habit of taking the money of these people and then dumping them in a lake. In addition, they are running brothels in the city, and I would hate to guess what the life expectancy of those poor souls is. Most of them don't speak a word of Polish, and appear to live in horrific conditions. We try to break these rings up, but there are always criminals and vulnerable people for them to exploit".

Austrian and Slovakian police have reported similar problems, although in Austria intervention from Interpol has succeeded in demolishing a series of large prostitution rackets in recent years.

With the continuing economic and political situation in the SSR, it appears that illegal migration will continue, bringing with it all of the attendant problems and continuing to highlight the inability of governments to deal with criminal groups within their borders. Until serious action is taken, both by the SSR and the governments of Slovakia, Poland and Austria, this human tide will continue to cause diplomatic strain on the already unstable region, while adding to the poverty and social problems suffered by many NCE states.

Klaus Werner, Wien, May 2020

Compnotes

*I'm making that assumption based on the events leading up to the Velvet Revolutions, where the friendly Hungarian/Austrian diplomatic situation allowed thousands of East Germans to cross the border into the west via Hungary.

**Based on Eurosource Plus - the Yakuza have a suprisingly large presence in the country.

The first chromer never really stands a chance - altough, oddly enough, Lao's kick causes him to crumple at about the same time as the bullets hit him, ensuring that only one of them makes contact with his head (the other passing over).

Same result. I honestly hope you aren't squeamish, especially given what happens at about the same time.

At the same time, the second chromer has spun around in time to see his buddy's rather grizzly death. He also sees Lao, roars, and opens up on full auto. The speed with which he does this ensures that the rounds miss, hitting the doorframe, the body of his former comrade and the building across the street respectively. He is emptying a lot of rounds very quickly, while screaming something obscured beneath the roar of the automatic.

Ooc: I would prefer to wait until people declare actions and then post, i think it works better on here when you can't guarentee in which order people will post.

But, since you asked, I rolled it and the order of players initiative is Lao, Aubrey, Les, Patrizia, Garth.

Ic:

Lao is immeadiatly behind the chromer, Les is about 5 metres away, Aubrey can't tell but it can't be more than 2 metres, the van is 50m away from being in a decent position to take the shot.

"Taking out the electricity would be a good idea, if we could manage it, and the timed charges. If I recall correctly though the power lines are out of reach initially and any other method of cutting the power across the entire building will probably be located further down the building? That might make it a practical impossibility, at least without splitting up."

Getting around the back of the building with neither of the Chromers noticing is a fairly easy proposition, on account of the fact that they aren't looking.

Around the back, with the trash piles and the cracked concrete, is a steel door with a broken sensor activated light behind it, opening with the key.

At around the same time as you put it in the key, you hear a shot from the otherside of the building (the back door is in line with the front, you don't know whats between them), as one of the chromers decides to open the door the old fashioned way - with an assault rifle.

In the UK Salisbury Plain has been completely taken over by the military as a training zone, i'm wondering where the similar regions are in Poland?

I'm looking for somewhere large enough to field a fairly large mock tank battle at least, if such a place exists.

Most of the buildings around here are low rise, just a few storeys, and with flat concrete roofs. There are no big lampposts in the area, they have all been used for target practice. What light there is emanating from lamps positioned above doorways etc, and is mostly pointing down, making the rooftops much darker than the street.

The garage is two buildings up the street, but the buildings (which back onto the sidestreet that Les has pulled up into) facing them have big ventilation stacks which you could crawl up behind, two of them, on top of very closely adjacent buildings (abandoned commercial lots, half a metre gap between them). There is a ladder behind the one to the left, a dumpster behind the one to the right.

"F**kit", you hear one of the chromers say (they definatly aren't aware of your presence). "Havta do this the overviolent way"

Ethan rolls back into his chair after trying to reorganise the First Aid kit, and takes the time to reattach himself. For ten minutes after the new breathing system comes up he is breathing rather heavier than he'd like. (He is probably more worried about the small confined space in the air with unreliable breathing equipment than he is of the actual operation (and it shows, as much as he tries to hide it), because if something happens to him there it is likely to be at least partly his fault and his responsibility)

"We should divide responsibilty. One of us should go after Xia while the rest of the team concentrate on getting the hostages out safely. If we remain mobile and in communication with each other we can react if Xia turns out to be more heavily guarded.

When we do find the inmates, we have to have a way to secure them somehow, because we certainly don't want to have them running all over the place, especially of Xia still has guards in place when we get there.

Apart from that, how do you want to play the entry? Do we try and get as far into the building as possible through strealth, or just go for speed and suprise? We definatly have the explosives and firepower to do either.

Alternativly, we could set up a distraction before we go in, maybe set off some timed explosives on the other side of the building first or even during the operation, to get the guards running to the wrong side of the target area...?"

There isn't any rain, or even much wind outside, instead there is a dry cold - about - 2 celcius.

This area is on the edge of the combat zone. Its early evening now, clear skies and a good view of the towers to the south lit up by searchlights, lasers and AV running lights. The architecture around here is made up of dull concrete, lowest common denominator blocks, a few riddled with bullet holes. Another block down and there are two burnt out cars, old 2000s models, stacked up on the pavement.

The two vehicles are in an old 'abandoned' mechanics garage another two blocks away, on a street corner, with a large metal garage door covering the front entrance, and a small door next to it.

At this current moment in time, two chromers appear to be trying to gain forced entry to the building. Or at least one is, throwing his weight against the door. The second is lounging up against the wall, AKR 20 slung over his shoulder, smoking a cigarette and laughing at his fellow gang members failure to get the door open. He is wearing what appears to be a set of smartgoggles. Both are sporting large amounts of facial hair and brown leather jackets, and the guy throwing himself against the door appears to have some kind of large calibre handgun stuffed in his right coat pocket.

According to the directions in the case, the warehouse is about three blocks away to west. This is evidently a rough neighbourhood.